As government regulation of the roofing industry continues to increase, so, too, does the importance of being engaged in the political process. The outcome of the 2016 elections in November (and the policies implemented as a result) likely will substantially affect how roofing contractors operate their businesses for many years.
After nearly eight years of an activist government led by President Obama, which has produced a host of new regulations and higher taxes for many businesses, the primary question as NRCA analyzes the 2016 elections is this: Will there be more of the same during the next four years or will there be a pivot to rolling back regulations (or at least slowing the pace of new rules), reducing levels of taxation and government involvement in economic matters? The answer will be determined not only by the battle for the White House but also by the fight for control of Congress.
What history says
By most conventional measures, this should be the Republicans' year to capture the White House as they have several factors working in their favor. Neither party has won three consecutive presidential terms since World War II, save for George H. W. Bush successfully riding Ronald Reagan's record of strong economic growth to victory in 1988. History indicates the strongest predictor of who will win a presidential election is the strength of the economy; anything less than 3 percent growth is considered bad news for the incumbent party. With economic growth at an anemic 1.2 percent during the second quarter of 2016, this provides Republican nominee Donald Trump with a potentially winning issue to exploit. And increasing threats of terrorism at home and rising instability abroad traditionally have benefited the party not in power.